A Decade Low! China’s Timber Imports Plunge, Global Supply Chain Reshaping Underway

The following content is for sharing purposes only and not for any commercial use. The article is sourced from the WeChat Official Account: 木材之家.(Timber family)

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs sends a warning: In 2025, China’s timber imports dropped to 65.55 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. The import value shrank by 13.9%, falling to 11.22 billion USD, marking a ten-year low for both indicators. This widespread contraction in both logs and sawn timber not only reflects deep adjustments in the domestic forestry market but also leaves a profound mark on the global timber trade landscape.

A Dramatic Shift in the Softwood Market: Radiata Pine Holds the Fort

In the nearly 50% share of the softwood logs market, a structural crisis is brewing. Despite New Zealand’s Radiata Pine accounting for 74% of the supply, with an import volume of 17.67 million cubic meters, its meager 1.4% growth rate can hardly conceal the industry’s decline. More troubling is the 44.1% plunge in imports of high-end materials like fir and spruce, which have dropped to 1.785 million cubic meters, a more than 70% shrinkage compared to five years ago. This steep decline directly impacts European and American suppliers, with exports from Germany and Poland to China plummeting by 62%, and the share of U.S. softwood imports evaporating by 89.3%.

The situation in the sawn timber sector is equally grim. Although Russia maintains its dominant position with a 69.6% share, its overall 12.3% decline reveals that the resilience of the supply chain is being tested. Traditional supplier countries like Canada and Finland have collectively stalled, forcing downstream companies to accelerate their search for alternative sources.

Reconstructing the Hardwood Landscape: Southeast Asia Rising, U.S. in Decline

As North American hardwoods face difficulties, Southeast Asian powers are quietly rewriting the rules. Thailand’s rubberwood has surged, with a significant increase in imports allowing the country to capture 44.5% of the hardwood sawn timber market. Vietnam, with an astonishing 139.8% growth rate, has entered the ranks of major suppliers, while Papua New Guinea has shaken the market with a 221.2% explosive growth. In stark contrast, the U.S. oak lumber import volume has dropped sharply by 71.7%, and its former status as the king of high-end materials is now in jeopardy.

It’s worth noting that industrial materials like birch and eucalyptus have also shrunk by 25.2%, reflecting the weak demand in furniture manufacturing, architectural decoration, and other sectors. This contraction throughout the entire industry chain is reshaping the value chain, from raw forests to processing factories.

Transformation Growing Pains Under Dual Pressures

“This is not a simple cyclical fluctuation; it’s a systemic restructuring,” an international trader admitted. Domestic environmental policies tightening, have led to rising processing costs, while overseas timber plantations are also facing sustainable harvesting pressures. This dual squeeze has resulted in an unprecedented reduction in profit margins for middlemen. For example, the cost increase of HT heat treatment per cubic meter is equivalent to swallowing up the net profit of a third-tier enterprise.

In response to these challenges, the industry is turning its focus to emerging markets in Africa. Tropical hardwoods from Gabon, Congo, and other regions are beginning to fill the gap, but logistical bottlenecks and certification barriers continue to limit the scale of expansion. Meanwhile, breakthroughs in engineered wood technology bring new hope—some companies have successfully developed new composite materials that perform on par with solid wood, which could signal the end of an era and the birth of a new one.

Standing at a crossroads, China’s timber industry is undergoing the most profound reshuffling since the reform and opening up. As the “world’s factory” turns towards high-quality development, the materials that once supported China’s manufacturing miracle must now reassess their positioning.